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Iran, Hizbullah shaken by penetration leading to assassination
ABU DHABI — Arab analysts said the assassination of Hizbullah operational chief Imad
Mughniyeh represented a huge security lapse by both Hizbullah and Iran's
Islamic Revolutionary Guard and could be followed by the killing of other
Hizbullah leaders.
They said Mughniyeh, the subject of a $25 million bounty,
had been tracked for months by Western and Israeli intelligence services
before he was killed in a car bombing on Feb. 12 in Damascus.
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Hizbullah fighters attend a rally to commemorate slain top Hizbullah commander Imad Mughniyeh in the Shiite suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, on Feb. 22.
() AP/Hussein Malla
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"Certainly, there is a very big security infiltration in many
directions, and it is the duty of the Syrian security apparatuses to clarify
what really happened," Ahmed Mosulli, professor of political science at the
American University of Beirut, said.
[On Feb. 17, U.S. National Intelligence Director Michael McConnell
raised the possibility that Mughniyeh was killed by Syria or his Hizbullah
colleagues. McConnell said Mughniyeh had been responsible for more deaths of
Americans and Israelis than any other insurgency operative with the
exception of Al Qaida leader Osama Bin Laden.
"It is a serious threat," McConnell said. "There's some evidence that it
may have been internal Hizbullah. It may have been Syria. We don't know yet,
and we're trying to sort that out."]
Appearing on a Feb. 13 panel discussion on the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya
satellite channel, Mosulli said the 45-year-old Mughniyeh, who had just left
a reception in Damascus, was not protected by bodyguards. Instead, the
Hizbullah operative was said to have moved without escorts to avoid being
tracked through his security detail.
"Mughniyeh was not part of Hizbullah, but part of its founders, and
consequently his activities were outside this organization," Mosulli said.
The analysts said Mughniyeh was sought by at least four countries —
France, Germany, Israel and the United States. They said the search was
assisted by Arab victims of attacks attributed to Mughniyeh, including
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
"Either he was killed by the Israelis and Americans in retaliation for
the many operations he carried out against U.S. interests, the U.S. Marines,
and the U.S. embassy car in Beirut that was carrying a U.S. official,"
Mohammed Al Qahtani, a Kuwaiti journalist and analyst, said. "The second
scenario is that a vehicle that Imad Mughniyeh was booby-trapping for a next
attack, probably in Beirut, blew up."
But Al Qahtani said the most likely scenario was that Mughniyeh, said to
have worked for numerous state sponsors, was the victim of a false flag
operation. The Kuwaiti analyst said Mughniyeh was paid to conduct a major
attack in what allowed a hostile intelligence service to kill him.
"Imad Mughniyeh, like Carlos and Sabri Al Banna, alias Abu Nidal, was
throughout his life a mercenary, and was killed by the party that hired
him," Al Qahtani said.
Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and currently a researcher at the
Washington-based Brookings Institution, said the United States had searched
for Mughniyeh for more than 25 years. But Riedel believes Israel
assassinated the Hizbullah operational chief.
"He was most probably killed by the Mossad, because this operation that
took place in Damascus has many characteristics of Mossad operations,"
Riedel said. "Regardless of who killed Mughniyeh, it is a fact that this
party was able to infiltrate into the inner circle of the Hizbullah security
system. Whoever was able to reach Mughniyeh will be able to reach other
senior Hizbollah figures, including [Hizbullah secretary-general] Hassan
Nasrallah."
Israeli intelligence gets aggressive
TEL AVIV — Israel's intelligence chief Meir Dagan has intensified
the use of assassinations in Arab capitals.
Western intelligence sources said Israel's Mossad has established
networks in Beirut, Damascus and other Arab capitals capable of targeting
leading Palestinian insurgency figures. At least seven operatives have been
assassinated in Lebanon and Syria since Dagan entered office in August 2002.
"Dagan has been bolder than any other Mossad chief since the 1970s," a
leading intelligence analyst said. "He firmly believes in taking the war to
enemy territory, and made Mossad much more active in both
intelligence-gathering and operations."
In mid-February, Dagan's term was extended until the end of 2009, which
would make him one of the longest-serving Mossad directors. The sources said
the extension came in wake of the assassination of Hizbullah operational
chief Imad Mughniyeh on Feb. 12 in Damascus.
For decades, the sources said, Mossad was wary over conducting
operations in Arab capitals, particularly Damascus. They said Mossad chiefs
were concerned over the prospect of failure, Syrian arrest and retaliation.
But Dagan ordered Mossad to target leading Palestinian and Hizbullah
insurgents soon after he entered office in August 2002. Four months later,
an Israeli defector to Hizbullah, Ramzi Nahara, was killed in Lebanon by a
car bomb.
"Dagan knew Nahara, and he became a priority target as soon as Dagan
became chief," another intelligence source said.
Under Dagan, the sources said, car bombs became the primary weapon in
killing Mossad targets. They said the use of car bombings avoided exposure
of Mossad agents and enabled false flag operations.
"Some of these bombs were small enough to kill the target without even
destroying the car," the source said. "It eliminated the logistics problems
of packing a car with 50 or 100 kilograms of TNT."
In March 2003, Mossad was said to have killed Al Qaida operative Abu
Mohammed Al Masri in a car bombing in Lebanon. Al Masri was accused of
organizing a cell to target Israeli communities near the Lebanese border.
Five months later, Hizbullah explosives specialist Ali Hussein Saleh was
killed in a car bombing in Beirut. Mossad was said to have directed the
assassination with the help of Lebanese operatives.
In July 2004, Mossad was reported to have killed Ghaleb Awali in Beirut,
Awali, a Hizbullah liasion to Hamas, was killed in a car-bombing.
Two months later, Mossad conducted its first assassination in Damascus
in at least a decade. A car bomb killed Izzedin Sheik Khalil, identified as
a Hamas liasion with the organization's headquarters in Damascus.
In May 2006 Mahmoud Majzoub was also killed in a car-bombing in Beirut.
Majzoub was identified as an Islamic Jihad liasion with Hizbullah. Both
groups are sponsored by Iran.
Dagan has also been credited with identifying a nuclear weapons facility
in northeastern Syria, destroyed in a purported Israel Air Force
strike in September 2007. The sources said Mossad tracked and identified the
facility with help from Israeli military intelligence.
The sources said Dagan, in contrast to his predecessors, has sought to
maintain independence from the United States. They said Dagan resisted
pressure from the Israeli government to agree with U.S. intelligence
assessments, particularly on Iran's nuclear weapons program.
"Dagan rejected the need to agree with Big Brother, and did not allow
this to cloud his judgement," a Western intelligence analyst said. "He
showed backbone."
Despite Mossad's achievement, the assassination of Mughniyeh was not
expected to generate strategic changes, the sources said. They said Iran
restructured Hizbullah's intelligence division in wake of the Israeli
assassination of Hizbullah secretary-general Abbas Musawi in 1992.
"Musawi knew everything, and it took months for Hizbullah and Iran to
figure out what he was involved in," the analyst said. "The assassination of
Mughniyeh would result in a purge of Hizbullah. But the Iranians have
ensured that the killing of any figure, even Mughniyeh, would not cause
strategic harm."
'Hybrid wars' of the future to blur sponsors' identity
WASHINGTON — Third World adversaries, led by Iran and Hizbullah,
could use non-combatants in future wars against the United States and the
West.
A new report said the new conflicts could blur the distinction between
war and peace as well as combatants and non-combatants. The report by the
Potomac Institute for Policy Studies defined this as "hybrid wars" a
combination of traditional warfare mixed with insurgency.
"Hybrid wars can be conducted by both states and a variety of non-state
actors," the report said. "Future challenges will present a more complex
array of alternative structures and strategies, as seen in the summer of
2006 in the battle between Israel and Hizbullah."
"Conflicts will include hybrid organizations such as Hizbullah and
Hamas, employing a diverse set of capabilities," the report added.
Hizbullah was cited by the report for its efficient use of conventional
and unconventional military tactics. Hoffman said Hizbullah, which
undermined the credibility of the Israeli military, has become a
highly-disciplined military and political organization, with autonomous
cells operating in southern Lebanon.
"Mixing an organized political movement with decentralized cells
employing adaptive tactics in ungoverned zones," the report said, "Hizbullah
showed that it could inflict as well as take punishment."
Authored by research fellow Frank Hoffman, the report titled "Conflict
in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars," asserted that multiple types
of warfare would be used simultaneously by what he termed flexible and
sophisticated adversaries. Hoffman said these adversaries have concluded
that successful conflict must take on several forms.
"Today's enemies, and tomorrow's, will employ combinations of warfare
types," the report said. "Non-state actors may mostly employ irregular forms
of warfare, but will clearly support, encourage, and participate in
conventional conflict if it serves their ends."
The report said the United States must be prepared for the full spectrum
of conflict from all fronts. Hoffman, regarded as a veteran defense analyst,
warned that preparing U.S. forces, particularly the Marines, for only
selected types of conflict would be a recipe for defeat.
"Because of their perceived success, hybrid challenges will not be a
passing fad nor will they remain focused on low-tech applications," the
report said. "Future opponents will be dedicated, learn rapidly and adapt
quickly to more efficient modes of killing."
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